Rose Bowl Preview: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Notre Dame
A College Football Playoff semifinal with plenty of intrigue.
The 2020 version of the College Football Playoff will surely go down as one of the most discussed formats for the CFP committee. There have been whispers and echoes of the format being expanded and what occurred mainly during the 2020 presented a convincing case.
However, the top four free-for-all is still the way to go currently. The first matchup of the semifinals places two historic programs against each other. The 2020 season appeared to be a normal season for the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0, 11-0 SEC) thanks to a record setting offense and a defense that caught it’s stride late in the regular season. The Crimson Tide missed the College Football Playoff last season but in their six appearances, they are 5-1 in the semifinal.
The #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1, 9-1 ACC) were riding high heading into the ACC Championship rematch against #2 Clemson Tigers. However, they ran into a buzzsaw but a 34-10 loss to Clemson did not keep them out of the College Football Playoff. The Irish must erase that memory quickly and turn their sights to a bigger championship.
Network: ESPN
Time: Friday, January 1st, 4:00 PM EST
Alabama’s Keys To Victory
The Tide are equipped with a deep collection of weaponry on offense with quarterback Mac Jones (3,749 yards, 32 TDs, 4 INTs), running back Najee Harris (1,262 rush yards, 24 TDs), and receiver Devonta Smith (1,511 receiving yards, 17 TDs). If the offense has a way to find their rhythm early in contest, they are difficult to bog down due to their efficiency and offensive balance.
Alabama will have to be better on third down as a defense as they ranked 69th in the country in opposing third down conversion. That rank places them in the middle of the pack of the SEC also. In their last outing, the SEC Championship game vs. Florida, the Tide allowed 8-of-11 third down conversions to the Gators en route to allowing 46 points on defense.
Bottling up the Notre Dame run game will go a long way for the Tide defense. A unit that is 11th in all of college football in run defense, allowing just 107.6 yards per game on the ground. The Irish were held to just 44 total rushing yards in their ACC title game loss to Clemson.
Notre Dame’s Keys To Victory
Quarterback Ian Book (2,600 yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs) probably has garnered to most headlines on the Notre Dame offense but the Irish offense is often successful when running back Kyren Williams (12th leading rusher in the FBS) is active and impactful. In six of 11 games played by Williams, he has topped over 100 yards and in eight of 11 games, he has averaged over five yards per carry.
Safeguarding the football on offense will be HUGE for Notre Dame. Statistically, they are one of the top offenses in the nation in offensive giveaways per game, ranking 14th. However, in the ACC title game, the Irish recorded three fumbles although they were able to recover all of them. Those type of mistakes can stall momentum and rhythm on the offensive side of the ball. Against a team like Alabama, mistakes should be as minimal as possible.
Believe it or not, there is a weakness in the Alabama defense. The passing game has been able to land a few blows on the Alabama defense over the course of the season. Notre Dame loves to spread the ball around in the passing game with six different players totaling 19 receptions or more on the season.
Prediction
The last time these two prestige programs were on the same field it was the 2013 National Championship game and we witnessed a 42-14 thumping from Alabama against one of the best Notre Dame teams of the past two decades.
Despite the rankings of the College Football Playoff, this contest honestly feels a bit one sided. Yes, Notre Dame is an overall good team with a run game that can win games and a defense that can be aggressive and pesky. Yet, the ACC title game showed us a side of Notre Dame that we have not seen all season long. Notre Dame will truly have to prove that their outing against Clemson was a facade.
Alabama is a force on offense and the connection of Jones to Smith or Jones to John Metchie (782 yards, six TDs) will eventually make the run lanes for Harris develop. In order for Notre Dame to stay in this for four quarters, they have to be aggressive on defense by getting to Jones and generate a few turnovers of their own. Look for Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and safety Kyle Hamilton to be the key playmakers for the Fighting Irish.
We’re really not sure what Alabama defense we are going to see. If it’s the one that took the field against Florida in the SEC title game, we may have a slugfest back and forth. If it’s the one that showed up against Auburn roughly a month ago, Alabama will be able to put this one away quickly. I expect a close one early simply because of an underrated Notre Dame defense. But eventually, Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian will expand the playbook and allow Alabama to put this one out of reach.