AFC Divisional Round: Cleveland vs. Kansas City
Can the Browns pull off another road stunner against the Chiefs?
It took 17 long years. But as they walked off Heinz Field last week, the Cleveland Browns likely heard a joyful cheer from their fan base all the way in Cleveland. Shockingly, the Browns emerged victorious last week in the Wild Card round with a 48-37 road win over their bitter rival, Pittsburgh Steelers. After accomplishing that large task, in their first playoff appearance since 2003, the Browns now head to Kansas City with a meeting against the defending Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs. Sitting comfortably as the # 1 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs have the luxury of “home field advantage” this playoffs as the road to the Super Bowl still has to come through frigid Kansas City. Now the upset minded Browns are hungry for upset #2 this postseason but well have to contend with a well rested Chiefs team. Time to breakdown Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round showdown between the Browns and Chiefs.
Time: Sunday, January 17th, 3:05 PM EST
Network: CBS
Browns Keys To Victory:
A lot of the Browns success lies on the shoulders of QB Baker Mayfield. Last week against the Steelers, Mayfield was solid with 263 yards and three touchdowns. In the Browns 12 wins this season including the playoffs, Mayfield recorded 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Mayfield has to be on top of his game in order for the Browns to make this a four-quarter game.
The Browns offense has been notably reliable in the turnover department. Over their last nine games played, the offense has only turned the ball over six times. They ended the regular season ranking third in turnovers per game. The offense can’t afford to give the Chiefs extra possessions given Kansas City’s high-powered offense and scoring frequency.
When it comes to explosive plays and the Kansas City offense, one element that plays a considerable part is their ability to be dynamic after the catch. The Chiefs were tops in all of the league in total yards after catch. To take it one step further, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (583) and WR Tyreek Hill (443) ranked third and 16th respectively in total yards after catch recorded. The Browns will have to prevent big plays by the Chiefs from turning into bigger plays and possibly scores.
Chiefs Keys To Victory:
When it comes to getting off to a nice start on offense, the Chiefs have shown to do so this season. During the regular season, the Chiefs were seventh in first quarter points per game as well as first half points per game. By this point, we have all seen teams that earn the first round bye, come out in the Divisional round looking flat and out of rhythm. Based on the talent that the Browns have along with the confidence after a big win over the Steelers, a slow start will allow Cleveland to play their best ball and put the Chiefs on upset alert.
The big play ability of Hill can flip the game at the drop of a hat. Hill tied a career-high this season in receptions with 87 and also had a career-high this season in touchdown receptions with 15. Of all the players in the NFL that received at least 100 targets, Hill was second in the league in passer rating when targeted with 130.3. Browns cornerback Denzel Ward will likely see a considerable share of Hill and the former first round selection along with the rest of the Cleveland secondary need to be up to the task.
The Browns rushing attack is dangerous. In their possession is a duo in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that can do some serious damage to an opposing defense. They combined for 124 yards last week and are the catalyst behind the Browns having the third ranked run offense in the league. The Chiefs began the 2020 season with a very concerning run defense in their first five games and six of their first seven. Since then, they have improved gradually but also keep in mind that since their week 10 bye, they have only faced one team ranked inside the top-12 in rushing offense.
Prediction
What the Browns did last week to upset the Steelers came at the expense of not having their head coach and lead play caller Kevin Stefanski. Their coach is back this week and now, there is no doubt that this sneaky talented Browns team is as confident as ever for this one.
As defending Super Bowl champions, that target on the backs of the Chiefs players is significantly large but as long as QB Patrick Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill are all clicking, the offense is able to establish it’s dominance. Mahomes has not had a game with a QB rating of over 100 since late November so it will be imperative for Mahomes and that Chiefs offense to get off to a blazing start.
Make no mistake about it. These are not your normal Browns. They’re feisty and looking to build on last week’s win. But I am curious to see how well the Chiefs will execute in a number of phases. Will the offense catch their rhythm early? Can the defense make the simple plays that go often unnoticed such as proper tackling and staying discipline and not cause unnecessary penalties? I do believe the Browns will make a game out this and give the Chiefs a scare. Maybe even expose a flaw or two.