AFC Championship Preview: Buffalo vs. Kansas City
A trip to the big game hangs in the balance between two evenly matched teams.
Defending your Super Bowl crown is never easy. The Kansas City Chiefs realized that just last week en-route to a 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Divisional Round playoff contest. In the second half of the contest, the Chiefs received a scare with their star quarterback Patrick Mahomes being knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury. Mahomes should be a full go for this one and given the opponent across the field from, his presence is unquestionably needed.
The Buffalo Bills find themselves in their first AFC Championship Game since 1993. It was not that long ago that the Bills franchise was in search of a direction with a new head coach in Sean McDermott. In a matter of time, he has turned the organization around considerably. Now the team is on the brink of creating more history. Time to break down this enticing AFC title game showdown.
Time: Sunday, January 24th, 6:40 PM EST
Network: CBS
Bills Keys To Victory
Undoubtedly, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is walking into the biggest game of his entire playing career. That includes collegiate and the NFL level. Throughout the regular season, Allen was a legitimate MVP candidate with 37 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Over the last five games, Allen has had just one turnover and that came in the 56-26 season finale win over Miami. Allen has to maintain that consistency in this matchup against a Chiefs defense that has forced at least one turnover in 15 of 17 total games played this season.
The Bills were not necessarily known for their pass rush during the regular season. A phase in which the Bills defense was average in during the season, ranking 15th in the NFL in total sacks. The pass rush was visible in their Divisional Round win over Baltimore in which they totaled four sacks. But facing a lethal offensive attack in the Chiefs, the Bills pass rush needs to arrive and make it’s presence known. In the week six contest between the two teams, Buffalo was only able to muster a sack and just four quarterback hits in a 26-17 loss. This aspect cannot repeat itself.
Chiefs Keys To Victory
The Chiefs defense have themselves a nice challenge on their hands in the form of a dangerous Bills offense. One facet in which the Bills were quite dangerous was within the realm of play action. During the regular season, the Bills led the NFL in passing yards generated from play action with 1,567 yards. They were also second in the NFL in passing attempts out of play action with 181. The Chiefs defense will have to be disciplined and stay ready because the Bills have obviously proven that they are capable of producing big plays out of play action.
The overall health and effectiveness of quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be something to truly monitor as the game transpires. Mahomes was knocked out of the Browns matchup on last week due to a possible concussion but after clearing concussion protocol during the week, Mahomes will be a full go. If Mahomes is showing any lingering issues, it may force the Chiefs to change things considerably in such a critical matchup with so much on the line.
Prediction
Once you’re able to lay out all of the stats involved in this matchup, you’re able to notice how even this matchup truly is. Both offenses are excellent at simply putting points on the board (Buffalo - 3rd in PPG, KC - 5th), both offenses are elite in yards per play (Buffalo - 5th, KC - 2nd), while both defenses are able to generate turnovers (Buffalo - 4th, KC - 9th).
The Bills were not expected to be in the AFC title game but here they are. A team that is young across the board with a dynamic passing game and a defense that has given up a few yards and plays but is stingy when it comes to giving up scores.
Kansas City is only a 3-point favorite in this one. Which is somewhat significant for a veteran team coming off a Super Bowl win last season and sitting as the number one seed in the playoffs. Again, the health of Mahomes will be highly focused on this game. It is almost certain that Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will send his platoon to get to Mahomes and attempt to get him off of his game.
In such an even matchup between two teams, it will simply come down to which team can make a critical play or two late. I believe this Bills team will make things very interesting and possibly have a late lead in the fourth quarter. But for a Chiefs team that has overcome odds in a big environment before, their expertise prevails.